Several articles appeared today in the Japanese English-language newspaper concerning this weekend's presidential election in Taiwan, including two in the Daily Yomiuri ザ・デイリー読売 and one in the Japan Times ジャパンタイムズ.
The first Yomiuri piece is entitled "Taiwan's democracy matures / After riots in Tibet, direct elections seem shrewd survival tactic", and is written by the Yomiuri Shimbun's 読売新聞 bureau chief in Beijing, Takuji Kawata. It's much more optimistic in tone than the Yomiuri's editorial from the previous day:
"The direct (presidential) election, held in Taiwan at a time when military and police officers were still patrolling the streets in Tibet, was testimony to a democracy in Taiwan that has matured over more than a decade...Despite the fierce election campaign, which divided the population into two camps, the second change of administration (the first occurred with the 2000 election) was held peacefully, proving that democracy has taken root in Taiwan and matured...In the case of Taiwan, demonstrating its democratization to the world has strategic meaning in preventing China from swallowing it whole. The open and confident second change of democratic regime in Taiwan immediately after the eruption of riots in Tibet must have left a favorable impression on the international community. It has also shown the world that democratization can be effectively used as a survival strategy."
Kawata also feels that closer ties with China may not be in Taiwan's best interests:
"After seeing the bloody suppression of Tibet, the Taiwan people will have become more wary of China. As such, democratized Taiwan will have to maintain just the right amount of distance between it and China to ensure its survival."
The second Yomiuri article is divided into two parts. The first section, "Japan-Taiwan ties seen stable after Ma win" looks at the impact of Ma Ying-jeou's (Ba Eikyū) 馬英九 will have on two countries:
"The victory of opposition candidate Ma Ying-jeou in Taiwan's presidential election on Saturday is unlikely to change the current relationship between Japan and the island, observers say. But the incoming administration of President-elect Ma, a former chairman of the Nationalist Party (Kuomintang or KMT), is expected to build a more business-oriented, pragmatic relationship with Japan than that pursued by the current administration led by President Chen Shui-bian of the Democratic Progressive Party, who has been in office for eight years, according to sources familiar with Japan-Taiwan relations."
All is not rosy, however:
"A major bone of contention between Japan and Taiwan, which have no diplomatic ties, is a dispute over fisheries, including waters around the Senkaku Islands. While the Chen administration has been trying to minimize the dispute's effect on the Japan-Taiwan relationship, it remains unknown how the president-elect, who was critical of Japan's territorial claim on the Senkaku Islands, will deal with the problem."
Anti-Japanese sentiment doesn't play as well in Taiwan as it does in China or South Korea, so I doubt the Senkakus will turn into an issue that Ma would be able to get a lot of mileage out of. Part one ends on an upbeat note:
"During his visit to Japan in November, Ma expressed his intention to improve ties with Japan, particularly in the fields of culture and the economy. Given this, the president-elect is expected to strive to maintain the current Japan-Taiwan relationship, which has been substantially strengthened under the Chen administration, with the assistance of KMT Vice Chairman Jing Bing-kun, an expert on Japan."
The second part of the story ("Taiwan Strait seen calmer"), has some serious typesetting problems, so here's the entire section in more legible form:
"The Japanese government does not believe Ma Ying-jeou's victory in Taiwan's presidential election will drastically alter its relationship with Taiwan, according to government sources. Moreover, some within the government welcomed the election outcome because they judge that the incoming administration led by the Nationalist Party will help promote dialogue and ease tensions between China and Taiwan. A strained China-Taiwan relationship would affect Japan's national security policies, they have pointed out. Within the Japanese government, it was initially considered that Frank Hsieh, the candidate of the ruling Democratic Progressive Party, was friendlier toward Japan than Ma. When Ma criticized Japan over history and territorial issues, some members in the government and the ruling parties responded by characterizing him as 'anti-Japan.' However, things completely changed following Ma's visit to Japan in November. During his stay, he met with politicians in both the ruling and opposition blocs, including former Prime Minister Yoshiro Mori, and expressed his intention to strengthen business-oriented exchanges with Japan in the fields of the economy and culture. 'Mr. Ma has studied in the United States, and we hear he's a man of common sense. We don't think there'll be a major change in Japan-Taiwan relations [after Ma takes office],' a senior Foreign Ministry official said. The Japanese government had been negative toward Taiwan's referendums on U.N. membership, which also were conducted on Saturday. The referendums failed to gain the required participation level needed to be considered valid. 'We can't support an attempt to unilaterally change the current framework,' Prime Minister Yasuo Fukuda said in reference to the scheduled referendum. Therefore, there is a growing view within the government that the change in the administration will have a calming effect on relations across the Taiwan Strait, according to government sources."
Finally, from the Japan Times, Max Hirsch of Kyōdō News 共同通信社 in T'aipei (Taibei) 台北 weighs in with "Taiwan's Ma still open to visiting Japan, U.S.":
"Taiwan's president-elect, Ma Ying-jeou, said Sunday he has not ruled out visiting Japan and the United States before his inauguration in May...'I plan to go to those countries most friendly (to Taiwan),' he told a press conference held exclusively for the Japanese press in Taipei.'After inauguration, I wouldn't be able to go anywhere, so now would be a good chance,' he added. Lacking diplomatic ties with the United States and Japan, Taiwan's leaders are typically denied access to those countries and rarely, if ever, conduct direct, high-level meetings with Washington and Tokyo power brokers. Nonetheless, the United States is Taiwan's chief security guarantor while Japan is its second-largest trading partner and a potential security partner."
If Ma follows through on this, it would help to get his administration off on the right foot after he takes over the presidency on May 20. It makes sense to:
"...'rebuild channels of communication and mutual trust' in Taiwan's bilateral ties with the United States and Japan..."
as these two countries are so crucial to the maintenance of Taiwan as an independent political entity. Considering the possible backlash from China over such visits, this could be the first test of how a Ma administration would stand up to pressure from Beijing.
Actually, if it turns out Ma still holds a US green card, who can stop him from going to the US even after he becomes president?
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