I'll vouch for that!

Today was Voucher Day, when the government of Taiwan began distributing NT3600 ($110 or ￥9800) in consumer vouchers in an attempt to get people spending and thus, hopefully, providing some much-needed stimulus to an economy that has been heading in the wrong direction since early last year. The vouchers have been issued to every R.O.C. 中華民國 citizen regardless of age (so my wife and daughter both received one), and after some initial confusion and policy switches when the program was first announced a couple of months ago, to spouses of R.O.C. citizens, which means I was able to get my hands on the free cash as well. Despite fears of long lines at the distribution centers, we had no delays at all - my brother-in-law picked up Pamela's and Amber's, while my wife got mine for me in just a matter of minutes (the fact that it was in the middle of the afternoon probably had a lot to do with that!).

The voucher packet contains six NT500 and three NT200 vouchers, and come in a "lucky" red envelope with a Lunar New Year's 春節 greeting from the government. They can be used just about anywhere to buy virtually anything. Some of my students are planning to use theirs on daily necessities, while others are going to pool them together with their family members' to buy big-ticket items like flat-screen TV's and dining room tables. The catch is that you're not able to put them into bank accounts - they are meant to be spent, and must be used by September. We haven't decided yet how to utilize our NT10,800 gift, and will put off doing so until after we get back from a visit to the States early next month.

Will the consumer vouchers work the way the government hopes? They'd better - including printing and distribution costs, the total runs to NT4200 ($125 or ￥11,400) each for roughly 23 million people. That creates quite a debt load to pass on to the next generation, especially when the government also intends to spend billions on a number of infrastructure (aka "pork barrel construction") projects designed to further cover this island in cement (while still leaving its residents with water that can't be drunk straight from the tap or toilets that can't handle tissue paper). Alex Kerr should have visited Taiwan first before writing "Dogs and Demons".

The BBC has an article about the voucher program on its website.

Behind the scenes

In the fields behind my apartment complex, the rapeseed flowers are at their peak. Once they're picked, the seeds for the next rice crop will be planted.

The way it should be (according to Gregory Clark)

Things had been quiet on the Gregory Clark front in recent months. Too quiet it seems, as the headline for his latest commentary in the Japan Times ジャパンタイムズ, "Antiforeigner discrimination is a right for Japanese people", unfortunately lays it out all too clearly. You should read the entire article to see for yourself how the minds of some individuals work, but here are a few choice excerpts:

"'Japan girai' 日本嫌い — dislike of Japan — is an allergy that seems to afflict many Westerners here."

Right off the bat, Greg dismisses anyone who has any kind of complaint with some of the ways things are done in Japan. Sure, there are a lot of whiners among the resident foreigner population who would probably be happier living somewhere else (as you would find in any country), but there are also a great number of people who love Japan, and offer constructive criticism as a way to improve things for the general good. Greg doesn't see it this way, however. Instead, he yearns for those years not so long past when anyone who dared question certain aspects of Japanese society were quickly accused of "Japan bashing" ジャパンバッシング  in a clumsy attempt to avoid dealing with both the questions being raised and the person(s) raising them. Japan - love or leave it, right Greg?

"Normally these people do little harm. In their gaijin ghettoes they complain about everything from landlords reluctant to rent to foreigners (ignoring justified landlord fear of the damage foreigners can cause) to use of the word 'gaijin' 外人 (forgetting the way some English speakers use the shorter and sometimes discriminatory word 'foreigner' rather than 'foreign national.')"

First of all, the words "gaijin ghettos" conjure up images of Hiroo 広尾 and Nishi-Azabu 西麻布, and I find it hard to believe the corporate ex-pats living there had trouble securing accommodation. I, on the other hand, found apartment hunting to be a frustrating experience, and I was usually the only Westerner living in the neighborhoods where I eventually settled.

Secondly, what damage can foreigners cause that Japanese can't? Do we urinate on the tatami mats like pets not yet housebroken? I've known of foreigners with Japanese spouses, who presumably could properly train their barbarian mates, still being rejected in the search for somewhere to live simply because they were not Japanese. In Greg's view, if one foreigner causes problems in their rented abode, all non-Japanese should be damned. But plenty of Japanese people create a lot of problems for landlords as well, yet they are not turned away. To put things in an Australian context (Greg is from the Land Down Under), if one Aborigine trashed his/her apartment, would that mean the white landlord would be justified in only renting out their property to other white people (all the while overlooking the problems they have to deal with from their fellow Caucasians)?

Finally, for someone who criticizes others for hypocritically using the word "foreigner", it's all over his own damn commentary!

"Recently they have revived the story of how they bravely abolished antiforeigner discrimination from bathhouses in the port town of Otaru 小樽 in Hokkaido 北海道. Since I was closely involved, allow me to throw some extra light on that affair. An onsen manager who allegedly had earlier been driven to near bankruptcy by badly behaved Russian sailors had decided this time to bar all foreigners from his new enterprise. The activist then filed a suit for mental distress and won ¥3 million in damages. In the Zeit Gist and letter pages of (the Japan Times), some have criticized these excessively zealous moves by the activists. These critics in turn have been labeled as favoring Nazi-style discrimination and mob rule."

What Greg fails to tell us here, though he is clearly aware of the fact through his heated correspondence with the litigants in the past, is that at least one of those "foreigners" was a naturalized Japanese citizen! What Greg is suggesting, though he doesn't want to clearly come out and say it, is that even with a Japanese passport and family register 戸籍, if you don't look the part, it's OK to deny you the same rights as your fellow citizens.

"Otaru had been playing host to well over 20,000 Russian sailors a year, most arriving in small rust-bucket ships to deliver timber and pick up secondhand cars. I visited the wharves there, and as proof I harbor no anti-Russian feeling let me add that I speak Russian and enjoyed talking to these earthy, rough-hewn people in their own language. Even so, the idea of them demanding freedom to walk into any onsen bathhouse of their choice, especially to a high-class onsen like Yunohana 湯の原温泉, is absurd."

Greg really lays on the patronizing condescension here. And I thought one reason people emigrated to Australia in the first place was to get away from the English class system! This paragraph speaks for itself.

"The antidiscrimination activists say bathhouse managers can solve all problems by barring drunken sailors. But how do you apply a drunk test? And how do you throw out a drunk who has his foot in the door? Besides, drunken behavior is not the only bathhouse problem with these Otaru sailors. I can understand well why regular Japanese customers seeking the quiet Japanese-style camaraderie of the traditional Japanese bathhouse would want to flee an invasion of noisy, bathhouse-ignorant foreigners. And since it is not possible to bar only Russians, barring all foreigners is the only answer."

I guess there's just no way a gaijin could understand "the quiet Japanese-style camaraderie of the traditional Japanese bathhouse". Gregory Clark included, of course.

A few years ago, there were a couple of incidents of Japanese tourists carving their initials on the walls of old European cathedrals. Since it was not possible to bar only Japanese, would it have been OK for the authorities to have barred all Asians? Would that have been the only answer, Greg?

"The antidiscrimination people point to Japan's acceptance of a U.N. edict banning discrimination on the basis of race. But that edict is broken every time any U.S. organization obeys the affirmative action law demanding preference for blacks and other minorities. Without it, U.S. President-elect Barack Obama would probably not be where he is today."

I'm not sure the USA even signed on to the edict described above, but that is irrelevant, as is Greg's comparison. It doesn't matter what other countries do - Japan accepted the anti-discrimination edict, and is supposed to follow through on its promise.

Greg also completely misses the boat on the history of anti-discrimination efforts in the USA. What laid the groundwork of Obama's victory were the efforts of countless activists from the 1950's and '60's, and the enactment of the Civil Rights Acts barring racial discrimination in public places, schools and employment, voting, housing and so on (and the abilities and intelligence of Obama himself). And if the result of all this activism was the election of Barack Obama, is that something to be feared? What talented individuals in Japanese society would be able to move up the ladder if there were similar laws in Japan? What does Greg think of someone like Marutei Tsurunen ツルネン・マルテイ? Would it be alright to bar him from a bathhouse?

"Sometimes their activism goes beyond even the absurd. Japan has long had a real problem of clever Chinese and Korean criminals taking advantage of Japan's lack of theft awareness to pick the locks and pockets of unsuspecting citizens. But when the authorities try to raise this problem, they too are accused of antiforeigner discrimination. Even companies advertising pick-proof locks are labeled as discriminators if they mention the Chinese lock-picking problem. Obviously Japan needs precautions against these theft experts. Many, myself included, dislike the fingerprinting of foreigners at airports. But this too is needed to stop criminally minded foreigners from re-entering Japan after they have been caught and expelled. If anything the authorities are too lenient with these people. (Let me add that I also have no anti-China feeling; I speak Chinese too.)"

Let's give Greg some credit here. At least he doesn't feel that white folks (and black people too, I presume) should be the only ones made to feel like second-class people - it's other Asians as well that have had the unfortunate luck of not being born Japanese. Yes, Greg, there are criminals active in Japan who come from China and Korea. But there are also a great many Chinese and Korean visitors (and residents) who would never involve themselves in such activities. And do you mean to tell us Japanese don't do these things either?

And yet another contradiction escapes Greg's notice. If he doesn't have any anti-Russian or anti-Chinese feelings because he can speak the languages, then does that mean all foreigners who can speak Japanese don't harbor any anti-Japanese feelings? If so, then those people can't be accused of being of having the "Japan-girai" allergy, right?

"It is time we admitted that at times the Japanese have the right to discriminate against some foreigners. If they do not, and Japan ends up like our padlocked, mutually suspicious Western societies, we will all be the losers."

As Greg sees it, Western societies made the mistake of trying to create societies where all their residents would be treated equally (it has yet to work that way, of course, but at least they're making the effort). We would all be better off if everyone knew their proper place in the greater social order.

Wouldn't we, Greg?

What are the odds? 一か八かかけてみている

This is the sight that greeted me when I returned to my parked scooter after a morning walk in Sintian - a sleeping dog. He/She/It was very friendly, and tried to hop on as I was leaving. Alas, our apartment is too small for a dog, and I don't think our cat Happy would be too...er, happy if I brought a canine home.

After several years of wrangling, the Legislative Yuan 立法院 has gotten around to approving the legalization of gambling, and thus the construction of casinos, on the Penghu Islands 澎湖縣, as reported by the BBC. What effect this decision will have on the islands and it residents won't be known until after casinos are up and running. For the islanders, it is a chance (they hope) to improve the local economy, which has been suffering for many years now from the decline of the local fishing industry, despite the growth of tourism during the same period. Young people have been fleeing Penghu for Taiwan proper in search of jobs (including a friend of my wife who first moved to Taichung 台中 to find work, and who now lives in Tainan 台南), and island officials hope gambling can stop the flow. Unfortunately, the effects on the local environment cannot be ascertained at this point, either. I have never visited Penghu, but from all accounts, the islands are quite beautiful. How much of that natural beauty will be lost to bulldozers and concrete, in the name of "saving" the local economy?

Another question is who will come to gamble, once the casinos have been built? Taiwanese, of course, but the main targets appear to be Chinese. It is no coincidence that when the DPP 民主進歩黨 was in power, approval for legalized gambling lagged in the legislature, but now that the KMT 中國國民黨 is back calling the shots, things appear to be moving forward quickly. The Ma Ying-jeou 馬英九 administration is pinning it hopes for economic recovery and growth on tying Taiwan closer to the Chinese market, but the strategy is a risky one. As the BBC article notes:

"...the nearby gambling centre of Macau 澳門 faces problems of being too dependent on Chinese gamblers. China recently placed restrictions on its citizens visiting Macau, for fear of capital flight."

For the KMT, China is the answer to all of Taiwan's problems, despite reality suggesting otherwise. During the presidential election campaign, Ma promised to open up Taiwan to allow up to 3000 Chinese tourists a day to come here. The promised bonanza of tourists and the NT dollars they were going to generate has failed to materialize, however. For one thing, the Chinese government is selective about who gets to visit Taiwan, among other restrictions. But I think a more important reason can be found by asking a simple question: why would a Chinese tourist want to visit Taiwan? Curiosity factor aside, what is there to see on this island that can't be seen in China itself? And considering the relatively high cost of visiting Taiwan from the mainland, the average Chinese tourist would probably find more value for their money, not to mention a more "exotic" atmosphere, by traveling to a country that doesn't share a similar culture.

While the Chinese are not showing up on Taiwan's shores in the promised numbers, visitors from Japan and South Korea are continuing to arrive here on holidays. These are people who are, in general, more affluent than the average Chinese, and who are not restricted or vetted by their governments - they are free to visit Taiwan whenever, how often and for how long as they like. For Japanese tourists, especially, Taiwan is a low-cost, high-interest destination that isn't a long distance from home. But the Ma administration is seemingly ignoring, or at least downplaying, the significance of these comparatively well-heeled visitors, and is choosing instead to place most (if not all) of its eggs in the Chinese basket.

In this Coral of Dreams story, if they (the KMT) build them (the casinos), will they (the Chinese hordes) come?

On a sunny day in Fengyuan 豐原

 

The building above is an old Japanese-era wooden structure that is in the process of being renovated (for what isn't clear at this point). For a long time it was empty building that stood in front of the parking lot to a large supermarket. The store closed a while ago, and I assumed that this building was going to be razed. However, it appears that someone has taken over the property, and has plans that include maintaining the original building. This is a very welcome development as too many Japanese-era wooden buildings end up being replaced by ugly concrete boxes.

海角七號

Well, I finally got around to watching the hit movie "Cape No. 7" in its complete form, with English subtitles, and all hype aside, I found it to be a very enjoyable, touching film. For reasons I'd rather not delve into, the story was very moving on a personal level, but I would've enjoyed it in any event. You don't have to be Taiwanese to understand the story, and there were no political undertones that I could detect, which makes it all the more mystifying why the government of China has decided that "Cape No. 7" is somehow too dangerous to be seen by its people. Why? Is it because the movie is too "local"? OK, it's set in the south of Taiwan, much of the dialog is in Taiwanese 台灣話 (along with Mandarin 官話, Japanese and even a little English) - though I liked the part where Tomoko (Chie Tanaka 田中千絵) complained to the Town Council Representative, that his dialect was "too thick" - Olalan and Rauma (the father and son police officers) are aborigines 台灣原住民族 and Malasun is Hakka 客家. There must be movies made in China that are set in one region of that country. If Taiwan truly is a Chinese province, what's the big deal? Or is it because "Cape No. 7" wallows in nostalgia for the Japanese colonial period? Yes, the subplot of the Japanese teacher leaving Taiwan at the end of the war and writing letters to the love he left behind on Taiwan doesn't touch on any aspects of the Japanese rule over Taiwan, but that isn't the point of the movie (and it hardly yearns for the colonial past). Or is it the case that presenting Japanese people as ordinary human beings (as opposed to raping, pillaging, looting Imperial Army monsters) is unacceptable to the regime in Beijing?

Whatever the reason(s), it only reinforces the bad taste I get in my mouth whenever I start thinking of the Chinese government. My wife, alas, is almost ashamed of her Taiwanese roots and yearns to be Chinese, occasionally bringing up the idea that we should move to Shanghai 上海, which is presumably more sophisticated a place than the country bumpkin-filled island of Taiwan. She sometimes accuses me of feeling jealously at the thought of China's emergence as a major power. The truth is that what I am feeling is fear - fear that a government like the one guiding the lives of 1.3 billion people in China is terrified by a wonderful little movie like "Cape No. 7".

However, I can't go without aiming some criticism at the film. The Taiwan that is presented in "Cape No. 7" is nothing like the ugly, featureless and characterless part of the country that I'm stuck in. Having been to Hengchun (Hengch'un) 恆春, I know it's not like the way it is portrayed in "Cape No. 7", but still it makes me wonder. If I can't break free of Taiwan this year, perhaps a move to the south might make resignation to my fate a little easier to accept.

ABC - Anywhere but China!

Places best avoided: Jiji

I don't know what it is, but for the first three days of the new year, I have been unable to get out of the apartment at an early enough hour. Today, we took the train to Jiji (Chichi) 集集 in Nantou (Nant'ou) County 南投縣, only the one we caught left Fengyuan 豐原 at 1:35, and with the wait to change trains at Ershuei (Erhshui) 二水, it was after 3:30 by the time we arrived at our destination. Then again, an early start might not have been such a good thing after all. The first time I visited Jiji was in early 2000, when it was just a sleepy rural town with an old Japanese-era train station (which was closed at that time due to extensive damage suffered in the 1999 Chichi earthquake 921大地震). With each successive trip there (and I've made several over the years), the town has gotten more and more crowded with tourists, not to mention the businesses that feed off of visitors, to the point that these days Jiji resembles a huge night market (albeit, one that operates during daylight hours). In addition to the heavy vehicular traffic, there were thousands of people clogging the bicycle and foot paths, passing by an endless stream of food stands and carnivals offering midway rides. Jiji has suffered the fate of so many other "charming old towns" in Taiwan that have been discovered by tourists - what was attractive about the area in the first place is quickly erased as the hordes descend en masse on weekends and holidays, while the vendors fight for the privilege of lightening the loads of the visitors' wallets and purses with tempting snack foods, tacky souvenirs and life-threatening carny rides. Unless I find myself with time on a quiet weekday, I don't think I'll ever go back to Jiji.

 

Amber poses on the train tracks

 

Close to Jiji Station there was a small carnival set up, with a number of rides for children to go on, such a carousel, paddle boats, bumper cars and the like. Unfortunately, while it looked the kids were having fun, it seemed as if liability coverage was something that hadn't been contemplated by the park's operators (my wife compared it to a Vietnamese amusement park, though I'm not sure where she came up with that analogy). At the back was a go kart racetrack, where several people were driving around the course at high speeds and without any protective gear (there were a couple of near accidents while we were watching). If you can divert your gaze from the young woman in the photo above and look over to the red car, you will see that one man has his son in the car with him. ここは台湾だ！

 

The mountains behind Jiji are beautiful, but I don't think many of the day trippers even noticed.

 

In the late afternoon, many people started the long drive back to their homes, though plenty of others were still walking around.

 

If anything nice can be said about Jiji, it's that it looks much better after the sun has gone down, and most visitors have left. Though my camera doesn't do it justice, this section of street was quite attractive with its overhanging lights. If you must visit Jiji on a weekend or holiday, it might be better to spend the night (though I can't vouch for the state of the hotels there). That way, you could enjoy a nice stroll after dinner, and then get up early the next morning to rent a bicycle and do some cycling around the countryside before THEY show up.

失望

Today was one of those days that doesn't quite work out the way you had initially hoped. The plan was for my daughter and I to visit the National Taiwan Museum of Fine Arts , which is reputed by Lonely Planet to have an excellent play area for children. In order to give my wife some time to herself, and to make the trip more interesting for Amber, I wanted to take the train from Fengyuan 豐原 to Taichung (T'aichung) 台中, and then hop on a bus to the art museum. However, we got off to a later-than-intended start, not getting into Taichung until around one o'clock. Then, the expected bus, U-bus No. 75 (according to the LP Taiwan guide, and confirmed by the woman in the Visitor Information Center at Taichung Station 台中車站), never appeared. After a long wait, during which plenty of other U-buses came and went, we were starting to get hungry, and so left the bus station to find a restaurant (during which, no doubt, a No. 75 bus appeared). By the time were were finished with lunch, it was after 2. The other travel book I have on Taiwan, the Rough Guide, suggested taking Renyou buses No.'s 10, 30 or 40 from Luchuan East Street, but none of those buses came while we were waiting. As it was close to 2:30, I finally gave up on going to the art museum, and with little else to do, and not wanting to call it a day just yet, Amber and I wandered over to the other side of the train station. There we checked out Stock 20, an art center that had been converted from old railway storehouses. Amber was fascinated by some of the installations (particularly the jellyfish made from wires and cables, and the giant fetus), but it couldn't really compete with the chances for hands-on play that the art museum has on offer. So it was with a great sense of disappointment that we got back on the train around 4:30, and headed back to Fengyuan. Better luck next time, dad.

Taichung's train station dates from 1917. Here's the view from the south side:

 

Amber bundled up on the platform at Fengyuan Station, waiting for the local train to take us up to Taichung; and outside at the Stock 20 complex:

Day One

On a chilly and windy first day of 2009, the three of us drove into Taichung (T'aichung) 台中 to do some shopping at Sogo. I have a total of four days off to start the new year, but as of yet, no firm plans about what to do with all that time.

 

My daughter poses on the way to Sogo

Happy New Year!

2008 has almost left the scene, and while I can't say that it has been a great year for me, it hasn't been a bad one, either. The same can't be said for Taiwan, unfortunately. There is the rapidly deteriorating economy to be concerned about, of course. But although things are going to get much worse before they get better, the economy will eventually turn upwards again. Politically, however, the situation has been getting bleaker and bleaker since May, and only a die-hard believer in the cause of Chinese nationalism has any reason to be optimistic about the future. It looks like 2008 will go down as the year Taiwan turned a corner, only the path turned out to be a U-turn leading back towards the dark days of the past.

The administration of Ma Ying-jeou 馬英九 has taken a lot of criticism over the course of the last seven months, virtually all of it justified. In its defense, it can be argued that there isn't much that can be done to shield Taiwan from worldwide economic trends, and that the long list of broken promises and failures isn't unique to this island in that all politicians in all democratic countries will say anything to their electorates in order to get voted in. But what cannot be explained away so easily is the slow, steady erosion of the components of Taiwan's democratic system of government. We have seen opposition politicians getting jailed, the judicial system being tampered with by the ruling party and heavy-handed police responses to public expressions of discontent with the current state of affairs. All this (and more) has gone hand-in-hand with the growing rapprochement with China, at the cost of Taiwan's status as a sovereign nation. This island is inexorably marching towards the day when it "returns" to the Chinese fold, most likely as some kind of "Special Administrative Region", no doubt with KMT 中國國民黨 politicians of reliable mainlander backgrounds running the show, and what remains of the DPP 民主進步黨 either imprisoned, exiled or cowed into silence by the police and the courts (a la Singapore).

There are those out there in the blogosphere who hope that the Taiwanese will soon wake up to what is going on, and do something to stop the clock from ticking back to the days of the martial-law era police state. It shouldn't be forgotten, though, that 59% of the voters opted for Ma and the KMT. They knew (or ought to have known) full well what they would be getting into (despite all of Ma's reassurances to the contrary during the campaign), but nevertheless they chose to believe the promises about growth, GNP and standards of living, and thus gambled on attaining "immediate" economic benefits over long-term solidification of a still-young democratic political order. Now it appears they've lost the bet. At least they've gotten a couple of pandas out of it all. As it is increasingly unlikely there will be a fair and open presidential election in the year 2012, at least they can enjoy going to Taipei Zoo to see Tuan Tuan and Yuan Yuan, safe in the knowledge that Chinese missiles are protecting them from the threat posed by a hostile Japan (a country which has never wavered in its determination to recover Taiwan, issuing a constant stream of threats to attack, building up its offensive forces in the area and conducting intimidating military exercises...)

Speaking of those revanchist Japanese, Hisahiko Okazaki in the Japan Times ジャパンタイムズ wonders why there has been "No sign of a 'peace agreement'" between China and Taiwan. Some of the points he brings up are interesting. To wit:

"More than six months have passed since the presidential election in Taiwan. After a hiatus of eight years, the Kuomintang is in power. This actually represents the restoration of the mainland-lineage forces for the first time in 20 years — if you count the Lee Teng-hui 李登輝 era as rule by non-mainland-lineage forces."

And:

"For one thing, I believe there is recognition that the awareness of Taiwanese identity is now irreversible. The KMT government did things like rename the 'Taiwan Post' to 'Chunghwa Post' 中華郵政 as soon as it came in. But it did not take much time to perceive that it would cause a backlash among the Taiwan populace. The cross-strait exchanges have also brought about opposition demonstrations from time to time. This appears to be one of the reasons for the abrupt decline in the approval rating of the Ma administration."

And:

"The biggest problem seems to be that China still does not have a Taiwan strategy and is responding with difficulty. Up until the presidential election, China had a clear policy of overturning the Democratic Progressive Party government. All its efforts — including diplomacy with the U.S. — were concentrated on this goal. However, it now looks as though they don't know how to reap the fruit of success."

As Okazaki sees things:

"...if China permits the Ma government to (become a member of international organizations), it will also have to do the same for future succeeding administrations...there is the possibility that it would lead to the gradual annulment of the one-China principle 一个中国; thus China seems undecided on how to respond. For a country with imperialistic intentions, a moderate, conciliatory adversary is a problem to deal with. The sympathy of the international community that Tibet's Dalai Lama ཏཱ་ལའི་བླ་མ་ has garnered with a moderate stance must annoy China. China's real intention toward Tibet is a complete Han-ization. In fact, it may be aiming for an across-the-board crackdown on radicalized Tibetans after the demise of the Dalai Lama. In the DPP era, which advocated independence, China was able to entertain the expectation (which I believe was an illusion) that the U.S. would not act against the use of force or threats by China against Taiwan. But if China lays a hand on Taiwan, a free democratic system, without any provocation by Taiwan, an intense backlash in public opinion and in the U.S. Congress would be inevitable. In the end, the only option is a policy of unification through natural development of closer economic ties. On the other hand, that would mean doing nothing at all politically or militarily."

Okazaki is much more optimistic than I am about the days ahead:

"The only possible change in the status quo might be if the KMT government accepts a Hong Kong-type of 'one country, two systems'一国二制度 formula through peaceful negotiations. However, as far as I can see from my meager experience meeting with KMT people, that likelihood is small. Taiwan is a free and democratic society under the rule of law, and is prosperous and safe. Very few people are willing to play second fiddle to the mainland, a backward society under the one-party dictatorship of the Communist Party 中国共産党. Those individuals in Taiwan with ties to the mainland may be motivated to continue monopolizing political and economic privileges in the days to come, but that lacks moral legitimacy and cannot be a political objective. The KMT government already seems to be learning this from its brief experience this time. As a second consideration, the emergence of a KMT government this time may be good for Taiwan in the long run. The DPP must have realized that they could not stay in power only by stressing Taiwanese identity. The longer a regime stays in power, the harder it is to avoid a degree of scandal and a fed-up public. That's the principle of democracy. The KMT also must have learned that the Taiwanese identity — national self-determination and democratic principles — are deeply rooted in the Taiwanese people. There is no way that even the KMT can survive other than by accepting and adapting to that fact."

I hope he's right.

あけましておめでとうございます！