The day began with a refreshing commentary on Taiwan's recent presidential election in the Japan Times ジャパンタイムズ ("Hope for Taiwan's future") by Hisahiko Okazaki 岡崎久彦. Okazaki is a regular contributor to the newspaper, and he's very sympathetic to Taiwan's situation. His column today starts off by saying:
"Even in democracies, if one party holds power for long enough, scandals can occur and popular support can fade. Nevertheless, the result of the Taiwanese presidential election was a landslide victory for the Nationalist Party (KMT) that far exceeded expectations. I felt, though conscious of the heartbreaking of friends of mine in the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), that the election result may lead to a sort of optimistic outlook concerning Taiwan's future. In other words, the Taiwanese voters completely discounted the possibility of a KMT victory leading to a possible China-Taiwan reunification. Otherwise they would not have opted for the KMT in the midst of China's crackdown in Tibet."
This is certainly different from the views of most outside observers. Okazaki takes Ma Ying-jeou 馬英九 at his word when the latter says he isn't in favor of reunification, and notes how both candidates stressed their Taiwanese identities. He then goes to note that:
"Previously, I had been apprehensive concerning the future of Taiwan's freedom and democracy. Democracy cannot be realized unless both the governing and opposition parties have a common vision concerning the ground rules for maintaining a democratic system. Democratically electing a Nazi-like party that has a totalitarian view of the state means choosing to end democracy through democratic means. In Taiwan's case, as well, electing a government that consents to the one country, two systems arrangement means the end of freedom and democracy. Even though 10 years have passed in Hong Kong, a popular election has yet to be held. But that really is a trivial issue. The problem is that Hong Kong will enjoy freedom only for a duration of 40 more years. Whether the time that freedom is assured is 50 years or 100 years, it is still a promise to throw away the freedom of one's grandchildren."
I don't think I've read anyone else worrying about what will happen to Hong Kong after 2047 - good point. Continuing on, he writes that:
"I was concerned about a similar situation developing in Taiwan. Chinese President Hu Jintao made a proposal for peace talks with Taiwan. Whether such talks materialize through peaceful means (though inevitably under military and economic threat) or by the direct use of forces, Taiwan will eventually lose its freedom if, under such pressure, the president accepts the one country, two system solution. And I thought that a KMT president would be more prone to accept such compromise, and that a DPP government was a safer choice until that possibility completely disappeared. If the possibility of Taiwan accepting a one country, two system solution completely disappeared, I would not be concerned about Taiwan's future even if a change of government took place as a result of its democratic setup. The results of the latest presidential and legislature elections gives me hope that perhaps Taiwan might have already reached this stage."
I'm willing to give Ma the benefit of the doubt for now, but I suspect there are those in the KMT who would willingly sell out Taiwan in order to become this island's version of Tung Chee Hwa 董建華. Okazaki next talks about China:
"China has been calling for natural, peaceful unification based on deepening of mutual economic dependence, although it is not known whether this is propaganda or its true intention. I do not mind this policy since I believe that economics and politics are fundamentally different. But strict vigilance is necessary so that intimidation and other unfair means intended for exploiting the growing economic interdependence shall not be used for political purposes against Taiwanese firms that have invested in China."
I'm sure that such intimidation and pressure is inevitable. Okazaki follows with a warning to the U.S. government:
"It is natural for (the United States) to feel relieved with the results of the elections so that there is no worry regarding maintaining the status quo in the Taiwan Strait for the time being. However, I would like to point out that assuming, from these results, that the Taiwan problem will be resolved through future reunification seriously risks misreading the sentiment of the Taiwanese people."
And he concludes in brilliant fashion:
"And finally, concerning the oft-mentioned danger of declaration of Taiwan's independence occurring when the pendulum swings back in the other direction, as a result of the future workings of democracy, I would like to point out that such a danger is an illusion. Taiwan, with its conditions, is already qualified as a nation state under international law, better qualified than a hundred other members of the United Nations. The only thing missing is formal international recognition. More to the point, recognition by America and Japan. But the U.S. government is hamstrung by the previous joint U.S.-China communiques and Japan does not have the political power to act independently on this issue. Consequently, even if Taiwan formally declares independence, there will be no changes in the slightest from the present status. Declaration of independence adds nothing. As long as the KMT is closely in step with Taiwanese public sentiment that opposes reunification, it means the existence of a stable consensus concerning Taiwan's future. And that will assure the future function of democracy. In fact, change of government will be possible in accordance with democratic procedures."
There aren't many analysts out there who point out what should be obvious - namely, that Taiwan is, for all intents and purposes, an independent state, and having the rest of the world accept this fact isn't going to lead to a third world war. In other words, nothing will change.
Perhaps inspired by this editorial breath of fresh air, I took my daughter Amber out this morning to get some of the real thing. Unfortunately, today's air quality was none too good, but we gave our new child carrier its second whirl in the friendly confines of the Chung-cheng (Jhong-jheng) Park 中正公園 area. It seems to be getting easier with each effort, but it's still going to be a long, long time before the two of us conquer Yushan 玉山 (or Niitakayama 新高山, as it was known during the Japanese era)!
I had some unexpected time off this afternoon, so I used it to go into T'aichung (Taijhong) 台中 to pick up my plane tickets from the travel agency. I will be making another solo trip to Japan at the beginning of June, and my itinerary is as follows:
May 31 - Ōsaka 大阪
June 1 - Kurayoshi 倉吉
June 2 to 5 - Matsue 松江
June 6 - Okayama 岡山
June 7 - Ōsaka 大阪
Obviously, the main focus will be my first visit to the Matsue area, home of Lacadio Hearn 小泉八雲 and Izumo Taisha 出雲大社. The travel agent commented that I must've been a Japanese in a previous life. I don't know about that, but I've certainly provided her with a lot of business as a result of the periodic need to reacquaint myself with my previous country of residence.
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