Wishful thinking?

It was quite a surprise when Yasuo Fukuda 福田康夫 announced his resignation as Japan's Prime Minister on Monday evening. The campaign to replace him is just starting to heat up, and some politicians in Taiwan are paying close attention, as the Kyōdō News' 共同通信社の Max Hirsch reports in an article entitled "Taiwan politicians hope Aso takes reins", from this morning's Japan Times ジャパンタイムズ:

"Taiwanese power brokers seemed upbeat Tuesday on the possibility that Tarō Asō 麻生太郎, secretary general of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party 自由民主党, would become Japan's next prime minister. But the Taiwanese Foreign Ministry predicted stable relations with Tōkyō 東京 no matter who replaces Prime Minister Yasuo Fukuda."

While the foreign ministry is doing what diplomats should do (maintaining tactfulness about the internal political affairs of a neighboring country):

"Other officials here, however, were more vocal on Aso, saying his expected rise would benefit Taiwan-Japan relations, which have, at times, appeared wobbly since Taiwanese President Ma Ying-jeou 馬英九, of the ruling Nationalist Party 中国国民党, took office May 20. 'Tarō Asō,' said legislative Speaker Wang Jin-pyng 王金平, 'staunchly supports Taiwan — if he heads Japan's Cabinet, that should be a boon to Taiwan.' An outspoken conservative, Asō, 67, tends to take a hard line on China and backs Taiwan for its embrace of democracy. The hawk, Wang told reporters, also enjoys strong personal relations with many Taiwanese officials and supports Ma's China-friendly policies. 'I consider Tarō Asō an old friend of more than two decades,' added Wang, also of the Nationalist Party. Colleague legislator Lee Chia-chin similarly predicted 'big benefits' for Taiwan with Asō as prime minister. While meeting with Asō on a visit last month to Tōkyō with Chiang Pin-kun 江丙坤, Taiwan's chief negotiator on China, Lee said he overheard Asō tell Chiang that 'China had much to learn from Taiwan in terms of democratization.' 'We heard Secretary General Asō tell (Chiang Pin-kun) that peace in the Taiwan Strait depends on the "Taiwanization" of China,' Lee said."

Wang (according to his Wikipedia bio is "a southerner, a native Hoklo 台湾語 speaker, and a legislator and person identified with the pro-localization faction of the (KMT)". He appears to belong to (if not lead) a wing of the ruling KMT that favors maintaining strong relations with Japan (as opposed to the more China-centric policies of Ma and his cohorts), and it is interesting that he (and others) are close to someone like Asō, who has made several controversial comments in the past regarding Taiwan and China. For example, in February 2006 he praised the implementation of compulsory education in Taiwan during Japan's colonial rule of the island, saying "our predecessors did a good thing". He upset China in March of the same year by referring to Taiwan as a "law-abiding country". He has also questioned China's ongoing military buildup, calling it a "considerable threat". It is hard to imagine comments such as these finding much favor with the mainlander elements of the Nationalist party (Asō, presumably, would also maintain a hardline stance over the Senkaku Islands 尖閣諸島).

However, before Wang and Lee get excited about Asō becoming Japan's next prime minister, they should remember that a year ago, when Shinzō Abe 安倍晋三 similarly abruptly resigned from the PM post (deja vu?), Asō was also considered the front-runner to move into the official residence in Nagatachō 永田町. In the end, however, he lost the leadership election to Fukuda, and stayed out of the government until two months ago, when he was appointed LDP secretary-general in a cabinet reshuffle meant to shore up Fukuda's flagging popularity (it didn't work, obviously). Several other candidates have also thrown their hats into the ring: State Minister in charge of Economic and Fiscal Policy Kaoru Yosano 与謝野馨; former Defense Minister Yuriko Koike 小池百合子, who, if elected, would become Japan's first female prime minister; and Nobuteru Ishihara 石原伸晃, son of notorious nationalist and current Tōkyō governor Shintarō Ishihara 石原愼太郎. While it can be safely assumed that Japanese policy toward Taiwan would remain constant no matter who becomes the next 総理大臣 later this month, is it a good idea for prominent Taiwanese politicians to be so openly supportive of one candidate in particular?

One other thing for Wang et al to consider is what would happen if the Japanese public's dissatisfaction with the post-Junichirō Koizumi 小泉純一郎 LDP leadership results in an early general election being called, with the possibility of Ichirō Ozawa 小沢一郎 and the opposition Democratic Party of Japan 民主党 taking over the reins of government. Things are starting to get interesting in Japan.