A return to normalcy

When you put two chairs close together, then put yourself between them and begin lifting your body with your arms and swinging back and forth (as my daughter did yesterday afternoon), it's safe to assume everything is back to normal. And the feeling was strangely reinforced this morning when I opened the homepage of the Japan Times ジャパンタイムズ, and saw that Gregory Clark had another one of his bizarre, "It ain't the fault of the authoritarians" opinion piece ("Puzzle awaits G8 delegates"). The focus of this article is mostly on the upcoming G8 summit in Tōya-ko 洞爺湖 in Hokkaidō 北海道 (where I spent a night during the summer of 1992), but Clark does manage to slip in a comment about recent events between Japan and Taiwan:

"Japan's muddled, nationalistic hard line over territory leaves it at loggerheads with all its other neighbors — South Korea, China and Taiwan. That the dispute with Taiwan over the Senkaku islands 尖閣諸島 should have led to a semi-formal break in relations is a much more serious setback for Japan's diplomacy than anyone in Japan seems to want to realize."

If one thing is clear above anything else, it's that Greg knows next to nothing about political developments in Taiwan (though I suspect he doesn't think so). Let's see...it was the Taiwanese premier that made the ridiculous remark about going to war, it was the Taiwanese foreign minister who recalled the unofficial ambassador to Japan back to Taiwan (with the latter being labeled a "traitor" by some KMT 中国国民党 legislators), and it was a group of right-wing Taiwanese politicians who sailed out to the Senkakus in an attempt to provoke trouble, and score a few points back home. While all this was going on, Mr. Ma 馬英九 was nowhere to be found, and even some in the sycophantic, pro-KMT media (like the China Post English newspaper) were calling for the government to get its act together before the situation got dangerously out of hand. The Japanese government, in contrast, remained calm, and offered apologies and compensation over the sunken fishing boat, while simultaneously reinforcing its claim over the Senkakus (and coming to an agreement with China over the gas disputes in the East China Sea 東シナ海, and having a Japanese destroyer pay a goodwill visit to a Chinese port). And Greg thinks this was a "serious setback" for JAPANESE diplomacy?! (Oh, and of course the South Koreans, Chinese and Taiwanese are never guilty of muddled, nationalistic hard lines over disputed territories!)

But what do you expect from a man who makes the claim that:

"...it was the same Washington that in 1951 almost certainly forced Japan to give up its legitimate rights to the disputed islands (meaning the Northern Territories 北方領土), as part of a secret U.N. deal with Moscow allowing the U.S. to use Guam as a military base — a fact that if admitted would greatly strengthen Tōkyō's position."

Perhaps I'm missing something, but what exactly is Gregory Clark talking about here? What "secret U.N. deal"? Why would the United States have needed the permission of the Soviet Union to use Guam as a military base, when the island had been an American territory since 1898 (and the last time I checked, still is)? Like I said earlier, things must be back to normal if Greg makes comments like these, without any evidence to back them up, nor any attempts to clarify the relevance of them to the topic(s) at hand. Details, Greg, it's all in the details.

Some things never change. Sigh...

Never again, I hope

A nice day out to a new shopping center in T'aichung (Taijhong) 台中 yesterday ended on an very unhappy note when we had to take our daughter to the emergency room at the main hospital in Fengyuan (Fongyuan) 豊原. After spending the afternoon at Park Lane, checking out the shops, we went across the street to People's Park, to give Amber a chance to stretch her legs. While we were there, an old friend dropped by to say hello, along with his two children. Unfortunately, as he was playing with Amber by lifting her up by her wrists, something unfortunate happened, as our daughter started crying and holding her left wrist. The fault is mine as I thought about cautioning my friend about being a bit gentler with Amber, but not wanting to be the overprotective parent, I said nothing, and the result was a trip to the hospital. X-rays revealed no breaks or fractures, but I never want to have to visit an emergency room again, anywhere and at anytime, and certainly never with a child. Seeing a gurney soaked in some unfortunate soul's blood being wheeled out of the ER as we arrived is just one image I could have done without.

After a sleepless night for all three of us, things are much better today. Pamela took Amber to an orthopedist this morning, who diagnosed our daughter has having a possible pulled muscle. She seems better now, and as I write this, is sleeping peacefully in her crib (knock on wood). So here are several pictures from earlier in the day on Sunday:

On the left are four imported beers that we bought at Park Lane for NT500 ($16.50 or ￥1750). The last two on the right have alcohol contents of 9% and 14%, respectively. I look forward to drinking them when he have something to be happy about again...like when Amber can go back outside to blow some bubbles in the air, like she was doing at People's Park.

In a sign the world keeps turning no matter what happens, a couple of stories in the English-language Japanese media caught my attention over breakfast. From the Daily Yomiuri ザ・デイリー読売, "E. Asia fleets to suspend tuna fishing / Fuel costs hit Japan, China, ROK, Taiwan" explains how:

"Tuna-fishing boat operators' organizations in Japan, China, South Korea and Taiwan have agreed to suspend operations for several months in the face of soaring fuel costs...The economic conditions made it difficult for tuna fishermen to make ends meet, while the measure also is expected to help declining populations of the fish to recover...The suspension is expected to result in higher prices for bigeye and yellowfin tuna, which are mainly consumed as raw fish and processed into canned food."

Perhaps I'm still feeling the effects from a lack of sleep, but for some cynical reason, I have my doubts that many local tuna fisherman will strictly adhere to the agreed upon ban. The other article came from the Japan Times ジャパンタイムズ. "Taiwan's way with dignity" is written by Hisahiko Okazaki, a former diplomat who is generally sympathetic to Taiwan's situation. His advice this time:

"When conducting cross-strait talks, the Ma administration must never give in on Taiwan's sovereignty and security. Any kind of 'one country, two systems' formula is designed to set a time limit on Taiwan's freedom regardless of whether it is for half a century or a century. Again, Taiwan must not accept neutrality or any unilateral arms restrictions. There is no comparison between China and Taiwan in terms of size. Once security measures are abandoned, there will be none to defend Taiwan if the situation changes. Taiwan must keep this in mind."

And for his own country:

"This (meaning talks between China and Taiwan) would be a chance for Japan as well. With its hostile policy toward the DPP president of Taiwan, China used to stiffly oppose Japan's attempts to make contacts with Taiwan. Since the U.S. was also cold toward the DPP for some unexplainable reason, Japan had to pay heed to both China and the U.S. in dealing with Taiwan. Japan may no longer have to care about either's reaction. Since Taiwan and Japan have strong historical and economic ties, to treat Taiwan coldly in disregard of those ties is unnatural. Japan might now be freed from this bind. The DPP might be unhappy with Japan's about-face to establish friendly ties with the Taiwanese government under the control of KMT. Nevertheless, deepening relations with Japan would bring benefits that would be an asset for Taiwan when the DPP returns to power in the future — possibly four, eight or more years from now."

When, and not if (according to Okazaki), the DPP returns to power, will the next US administration maintain a more rational, reasonable approach?

Return of the "Little Dwarves"?

The Daily Yomiuri ザ・デイリー読売 has a very good article today ("Taiwan steps back from Japan / Lack of pro-Japan officials blamed for Ma administration trend") analyzing the reasons why Mr. Ma 馬英九 has gone and screwed up relations with Japan after barely a month in office:

"Taiwan's President Ma Ying-jeou of the ruling Nationalist Party (Kuomintang or KMT) 中国国民党, has shown signs of distancing Taiwan from Japan, a sign that should alert Tōkyō to the fact that more dialogue with Taipei is necessary."

Up until May 22, things were very different:

"Taiwan is basically well disposed to Japan. Since Tōkyō waived tourist visas for Taiwanese visitors in 2005, more than 2.4 million Japanese and Taiwanese have visited each other's soil annually. Public opinion polls in recent years showed Japan topping the United States as the most favored country among Taiwanese...under the pro-Japan administration of Ma's predecessor, Chen Shui-bian, bilateral ties were at their warmest since Japan severed diplomatic ties with Taiwan in 1972. Ma--who assumed office in May--repeatedly stressed his intent to maintain this solid relationship."

How quickly things have changed, with the collision between a Japanese patrol vessel and a Taiwanese fishing boat in the vicinity of the Senkaku Islands 尖閣諸島:

"Pressured by pro-China Nationalists who favor a hard-line approach toward Japan, Ma dispatched nine patrol boats to the waters off the Senkaku Islands to ratchet up awareness of Taiwan's sovereign claim on the Senkaku Islands...As a result, tensions rose dramatically between Japan and Taiwan. Unlike former Presidents Lee Teng-hui and Chen, both of whom avoided playing hardball with Tokyo over the territorial issue, the Taiwan patrol boats' incursion into the disputed waters has highlighted Ma's brusque approach toward Japan."

It has also highlighted the incompetence of Ma and his administration officials when it comes to managing foreign relations. The article moves on to point out that the nature of the problem lies in the different historical perceptions of the KMT and the DPP 民主進歩党:

"The Nationalists, who fought against Japan before and during World War II--from 1937 to 1945--fled to Taiwan after the war and ruled the island by installing mainlanders in key government positions. The mainlanders--a minority in Taiwan who account for only about 20 percent of the population-- generally take a tough stance on Japan. In contrast, the DPP was established in the 1980s by Taiwanese who had lived under Japanese colonial rule before and during the war. As some of these people perceived Japan favorably, they remain well disposed toward the nation."

I'm reminded of one time when I asked a class of around 20 adult students about what kind of impressions they had of Japan. Only one student answered in the negative, with his reason being that the Japanese "killed a lot of Chinese in the war". From that remark, it wasn't hard to determine his family's background! Ma, of course, is a mainlander, a child of a privileged background, who joined a party of outsiders who assigned themselves positions of privilege in an authoritarian government for more than 40 years. He belongs to a social class that can't stomach the idea of Taiwan's future being determined by those people whose families have actually lived here for over a century or more (it was certainly no accident that aborigines were overlooked in Ma's inauguration speech), and which is eager to make up for the eight years of "lost time" when it was out of power. One way to remind the locals of who is back in charge is to make it clear they don't share the same feelings towards the Japanese (who did, after all, greatly improve Taiwan's health care, education, economic and transportation infrastructure, and without the corruption the KMT brought with them from China). Of course, good old fashioned ignorance also plays a part:

"...Ma has few officials in key government posts who are conversant with Japanese affairs...Japan previously fostered strong ties with Taiwanese people, including Lee, who had an affinity for Japan as a result of having spoken Japanese. However, those who attended school under Japanese colonial rule are gradually fading from political and business arenas. Members of the emerging elite, including people such as Ma, were taught a China-centered version of history during the postwar Nationalist era. Compared with people such as Lee who speak Japanese, and those under 30 who are fascinated by Japanese pop culture, people of Ma's generation have a relatively low opinion of Japan."

As a result, Ma and his cronies don't consider ties with Japan to be especially important:

"In his inaugural speech, Ma did not refer to Japan, whereas Chen did the opposite during his inauguration address. While Chen clearly stated that China was a military foe, Ma refuses to criticize Beijing. With Ma prioritizing relations with China,...the new president is trying to avoid relying on the United States and Japan for Taiwan's security. In other words, while Chen considered Japan as an ally with shared ideals on democracy and security issues, Ma mainly sees Japan as an economic partner."

Actually, while the recent spat over the Senkaku Islands has highlighted the changing nature of Japan-Taiwan relations, it should also be noted that Mr. Ma is trying to keep the United States at a distance as well (he only mentioned the USA once during his inaugural address), while cozying up to the Chinese leadership (he let the June 4 anniversary of the Tiananmen Square massacre pass without comment, and has been silent on Tibet since the election). Many in the Washington foreign policy establishment were hoping for a Ma win, since they assumed it would lower tensions between China and Taiwan. Are they beginning to have second thoughts, or is the thinking still cloudy over at Foggy Bottom?

Are things likely to improve between Japan and Taiwan? According to the Yomiuri article, it isn't going to be easy:

"Although Ma wants to retain ties with Tōkyō, among Nationalist lawmakers--who occupy more than two-thirds of the seats at the Legislative Yuan (Parliament)--there are several pro-China individuals who want to unify with China. Ma likely will therefore take a firm stance vis-a-vis future approaches to sovereignty and historical issues."

So what can the Japanese government do about this new reality? According to a DPP member:

"...the current (ROC) government ha(s) a pronounced pro-China tilt, when compared with Lee's and Chen's former administrations. Because of this, Japan must face the fact that Taiwanese have complex feelings about Japan. Tōkyō also must endeavor to build a good relationship with Taiwan--an important factor in Japan's security--as well as holding talks with the Ma administration. Ma is keen to conclude a free trade agreement and a fishing treaty with Japan, and also wants to expand student-exchange programs. For its part, Japan should expeditiously nurture ties with pro-Japan Taiwanese and provide more help to Taiwan, which hopes to become a member of various international organizations, such as the World Health Organization. This will counter Taiwan's strong feelings of isolation."

The next four years (at least) are going to be very trying times for officials in both Japan and the United States, and for those in Taiwan who believe in the benefits of a democratic political system.

And as for those who voted for the KMT in the last round of elections, well my wife is deep blue and knew exactly what she was voting for. But those who chose perceived short-term economic benefits (and what has the stock market done since Ma took over?) over the strengthening of a democratic political system could be in for some nasty surprises in the weeks, months and years to come.

One in the hand...

There's always a sense of depression when returning to Taiwan from a vacation in Japan. The latter country, after all, is a reminder that Asia doesn't have to be the stereotyped image so many Westerners have of this part of the world, which makes coming back to Taiwan, where so much of that "Asian" atmosphere is still so obviously apparent, all the more harder. But what is making things even worse this time around is the new government in power here. Barely a month in office, and already the worst fears about giving in to the Chinese seem to be coming true. And then there was that whole Gilbert and Sullivan farce over the Senkaku Islands 尖閣諸島.

What was going on here? The premier was threatening war, and the foreign minister recalled Taiwan's unofficial ambassador to Japan. Much noise was made about sending reinforcements to protect Taiwanese fishermen. Was anyone in the new administration aware of the U.S.-Japan Mutual Security Treaty 日米安保, a certain piece of paper that obligates the United States to come to the defense of Japan if the latter is attacked? The treaty covers all areas under Japanese administration, and that includes the Senkakus. If anyone in the KMT 中国国民党 had bothered to look it up, they might have read how it was the USA that controlled the islands from 1945 to 1972 (even using a couple of them for military training purposes), and that it was the same country which gave the Senkakus to Japan when it returned Okinawa Prefecture 沖縄県 to Tōkyō in 1972. And if the KMT was perhaps expecting their ethnic cousins on the Chinese mainland to back them up, the recent agreement between China and Japan to share in the development of disputed gas fields in the East China Sea probably put paid to that notion. Still, I wish some of those KMT legislators had gone through with their chest-puffing, flag-waving intention of sailing to the Senkakus in order to demonstrate Taiwan's claim to the islands. With any luck, some of them might have jumped into the sea and drowned (which is what happened to a most glorious Chinese patriot from Hong Kong in 1996, an act which should have demonstrated the idiocy of identifying oneself with any form of nationalism), and thus helped to have thinned the herd a little. No such luck, though.

Oh, and where was Mr. Ma 馬英九 while all of this was going on? For a while there, Taiwan's new president had turned into the invisible man. Being the leader of a government that has simultaneously cozied up to an enemy threatening to destroy it, while needlessly antagonizing a key ally, Ma hasn't exactly done much to inspire confidence in his leadership abilities.

But things seem to be returning to what constitutes "normal" in this brave, new KMT world, and to outside observers at least, there are great opportunities waiting to be seized by both China and Taiwan, according to Richard Bush in "Balancing act across Taiwan Strait", from today's Japan Times ジャパンタイムズ. It's not a bad article, but it doesn't really cover any new ground, or say anything different from the numerous stories that have appeared in both the Western and Japanese media since Ma won the election back in March. In short, there are both opportunities and risks, and the leaders on both sides of the Taiwan Straits need to be cautious in their approaches. And as is the case with almost all of these commentaries, the conclusion is generally sunny:

"Beijing may not yet realize how much Ma is depending on its positive moves to help him ensure sustained political support within Taiwan for his policy agenda. Yet the two sides have learned something from the experience of the last 15 years. They have stared into the abyss of mutual fear. They appear to understand what can be gained from seizing today's strategic opportunity. For all the difficulties that lie ahead, they are off to a good start."

To me, it seems like the beginning of a Taiwan Special Administrative Region is in the making. But then I'm not a learned member of a major think tank, nor a former chairman of the AIT. I just live here, so what do I know?

大坑という山地方に

取っ組み合っている毛虫は台湾のアリによって運ばれている。その感じがよくわかっている。

I know how this caterpillar feels

タイムマシンにおねがい

日本から台湾に戻ったのであまり元気がない。たぶん

旅でぼくはへとへとに疲れて、先週にもウイルスがあって病気なんだ。しかし、ぼくの生徒以外は、台湾の生活をするのに飽きたと思う。この国も馬英九は大統領になってから、もっとひどくなった。家族といっしょにアメリカに帰るほうがいいかなあ...

娘は昨日の夜バナナのニューパラダイスというレストランにいた。

Japan Trip Day 9: Ja mata 日本旅行６月８日

Sennnichimae 千日前 is empty early on a Sunday morning; and NT dollars can finally be exchanged for yen (and vice versa) at Kansai International Airport 関西国際空港.

My last day in Japan was a short one. I was on the Nankai Line 南海線 out of Namba Station 難波駅 by 7:40am, on the plane just after 11, in Taiwan around 1:15pm, and back "home" before 4. It was an tiring trip at times, but a refreshing form of exhaustion nonetheless. I was able to climb up to the Nageire-dō 投入堂 and to the top of Mount Daisen 大山; visit one of the most important Shintō 神道 shrines in Japan, Izumo Taisha 出雲大社; spend several days in one of the country's more laid-back, relaxing cities, Matsue 松江; discover a hidden gem of a town in the form of Takahashi 高梁; and meet up with some wonderful people again. I've been back to Japan a number of times now since relocating to Taiwan, and I've thoroughly enjoyed each and every visit. The only drawback is I have to come back here. I would never be so presumptuous as to claim that I "understand" Japan, but I do "get" a lot of things there - how they are done, why they are done that way etc. Even after several years in Taiwan, I'm still lost as to why people do things the way they do so here. Just looking around my apartment, for example, I find myself shaking my head at so many little things (Why no southern exposure? Why are the balconies so small? Why is the entrance in a dark stairwell, and not on the outside? Why the necessity for barred windows five stories above the ground? The list goes on.), and it gets worse the further you progress outside. Why is everyone so terrified of the sun, and of dogs, and of ghosts, and of yada yada yada? Enough. Two things always come into focus whenever I travel to Japan from Taiwan. Or, more accurately, two mistakes. We all screw up on numerous occasions during the course of our lives. In my case, the two biggest regrets are leaving Japan in the first place to move to Taiwan; and then getting myself tied down to a long-term commitment here when in retrospect it might've been better to have moved on (or back).

But then again, my daughter wouldn't be here if these things hadn't come to pass, so the optimist inside (he's in there somewhere) reassures me that it's all for the best in the long term. I sure hope so. In the meantime, I'll be planning my next visit.

じゃ、また